Cox November Forecast: US New-Vehicle Sales Expected Down 8% as Higher Prices and the EV Slump Bite

November new-vehicle sales in the United States are expected to fall in both volume and pace from last year levels, according to a Cox Automotive forecast reported November 2. Sales volume is expected to reach 1.27 million, down 7.8% from last year and down 1% from last month. The seasonally adjusted annual rate, or SAAR, is forecast near 15.7 million, up slightly from October 15.3 million pace in this forecast series, but down from last year 16.5 million level. November has 25 selling days, two fewer than last month and one fewer than last year, which accounts for some of the expected volume decline.

Cox senior economist Charlie Chesbrough attributed the slowdown to higher prices and fewer government subsidies for electric vehicles finally slowing the market after a surprisingly strong previous six months. Sales began surging in the spring as buyers rushed to market to beat expected higher prices after announced tariffs; now, with more tariffed products replacing existing non-tariffed inventory, prices are drifting higher, leading to slower sales which may last through the remainder of the year and into next year. Electric vehicle sales are expected to remain low following the tax credit expiration, which will affect November totals, and Cox reported that October marked a sharp reversal for the EV market after three months of accelerated pre-credit sales.

Through October, the monthly SAAR has averaged 16.2 million in this series — so November 15.7 million would be a step down, not a collapse. The forecast is a forecast, not a result: actual November sales, when announced next week in the report framing, will show whether the tariff-price effect or the selling-day shortfall explains more of the drop. Either way, the direction is the story: the spring rush is over, and the market is settling into a slower, more expensive fourth quarter.