Tesla Robotaxi Mileage Is Climbing Fast Enough That One Forecast Has It Passing Waymo in About 11 Weeks

On October 24, electric vehicle outlet CleanTechnica forecast that if recent growth holds, Tesla weekly autonomous robotaxi mileage could surpass Waymo total weekly US mileage in about 11 weeks. The analysis estimated recent Tesla weekly autonomous mileage at about 558,000 miles, up from about 250,000 miles in the previous quarter, with a later company figure reaching 3.3 million miles. Applying a 20 percent weekly compound growth rate to the weekly estimate would put Tesla above Waymo weekly mileage of around 4 million miles in about 11 weeks, and the same analysis said Tesla could exceed half of the combined weekly paid passenger miles of Uber and Lyft across three major Texas cities around mid-February next year.

The Austin comparison is the sharpest part of the forecast. Tesla weekly autonomous mileage in Austin was tallied at 437,800 miles, against about 406,000 miles a week for Waymo as of the second quarter of 2026. Waymo cumulative passenger-only autonomous mileage stood at 271.3 million miles as of the end of June 2026, with a second-quarter increase of about 50.7 million miles, up about 1.6 percent from 49.9 million miles in the first quarter. Phoenix declined for a second straight quarter, Austin quarterly growth fell to about 4 percent from more than 100 percent in early 2025, and Los Angeles and San Francisco grew about 9 percent and 13 percent respectively.

The honest caveat comes from the forecast itself: the Austin and Waymo figures cover different measurement periods, making a direct comparison hard to treat as exact. A 20 percent weekly growth rate also cannot compound forever, since it depends on vehicle supply, city approvals, and demand at every step. What the forecast does establish is momentum. Tesla went from a standing start in Austin to a weekly mileage figure in the same range as Waymo in one city, and the question for the next quarter is whether that compounding survives contact with winter demand and the Dallas launch.