Tesla Slides 5% as $20B Capex Pullback Clouds Musk’s AI and Robotics Bet

Tesla shares slid about 5% in premarket trading on October 22 after the automaker lowered its 2026 capital spending forecast to roughly $20 billion from more than $25 billion, Reuters reported. The cut came after Tesla spent far less than expected on AI and robotics in the third quarter — which delivered a surprise positive free cash flow but raised questions about how fast Elon Musk’s AI, robotics and autonomous-driving ambitions are being funded.

“Investors are likely to come away with mixed feelings,” J.P. Morgan analysts led by Rajat Gupta wrote. “The delay helps near-term cash burn but also suggests delays in investments that matter for fruition of long-term opportunities.” Management commentary suggested spending will ramp back up in 2027 and 2028 as Tesla funds robotaxi, Optimus, AI compute and its Terafab chip milestones. There is a strategic read, too: the strong cash position could prove valuable as Musk explores combining Tesla with the far more capital-intensive SpaceX.

The valuation math explains the market’s sensitivity. Tesla shares have declined about 14% this year against a roughly 15% gain for the Nasdaq, sitting about 23% below the December 2025 record intraday high of $498.83 — yet Tesla still trades at 188.24 times forward earnings, versus 6.58 for Ford and 5.16 for GM. “The risk is Tesla now enters a period of limbo while investors await news on a potential combination with SpaceX,” said AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.