Tesla US EV Share Is Back to 52% — and One Prominent Investor Says the Valuation Still Does Not Add Up

Tesla is losing the dominance it once took for granted in its home EV market, and even its partial recovery leaves a hard question unanswered. Investor Gary Black of The Future Fund, quoted in a November 2 market report, warned that Tesla is losing its first-mover advantage as rivals close in. The numbers in that report trace the slide: Tesla held about 80% of the US electric vehicle market in 2020, fell to a record low of about 41% in 2025, and recovered to around 52% in the first eight months of 2026.

Black framed the challenge as arithmetic, not sentiment. How, he asked, does Tesla reverse the share trend far enough to justify a price-to-earnings ratio above 200 times, based on an estimated adjusted earnings per share of about $2 in 2026? The same report names Hyundai, Toyota, General Motors, Ford and Rivian as the top-performing manufacturers in the space — a reminder that the competition is no longer a single rival but a full field of legacy and startup brands, each with its own EV lineup and pricing.

The counter-argument Tesla bulls will make is that the company is no longer valued as a carmaker alone: robotaxis, Full Self-Driving and Optimus robots are the growth story in the Q3 call narrative. That is a legitimate thesis, but it is also unproven at scale — robotaxi revenue is not expected to become financially noticeable until the second quarter of 2027 on Tesla own guidance. Until then, the share numbers are the scoreboard everyone can check, and 52% is both a recovery and a long way from 80%.